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Beyond the Models: What a Rapid Assessment Taught Me About Communities and Sea-Level Rise in Egypt

IHE Delft alumna Toka Mahmoud reflects on the need to go beyond numbers and build relations in research through interdisciplinary methods to better understand the social consequences of climate change and push people to act on it.

“Nile Delta 100-year flood extents across 0.5–2 m sea-level rise scenarios” (Source: IPDC). 

The first time I saw the flood projection maps of Egypt’s northern coast, I froze. The blue shading that represented future inundation crept silently across the familiar outline of the Nile Delta. Over villages and towns whose names I recognized.

That moment stayed with me throughout my work on the report “Social Disruption and Migration due to Sea-Level Rise in Egypt”. The report emerged from the Egypt Sea-Level Rise Hackathon. An event organized by the Egyptian Ministry of Water Resources & Irrigation, the Egyptian National Water Research Center, and IPDC, a Dutch government-led initiative, facilitated by the Dutch knowledge institute Deltares. The report aimed to explore a deceptively simple question: How can a rising sea quietly reshape lives, driving social disruption and migration in Egypt and beyond?

The Crisis That Hides in Plain Sight

This study may have been designed as a rapid assessment, but for me, it became something much bigger. It opened my eyes to how differently sea level rise is understood across fields, from science to everyday life. When most people hear “sea-level rise,” they imagine dramatic moments like waves reaching coastal homes. The kind of scenes we see on social media. But a slow-onset crisis doesn’t arrive with a breaking wave; it moves quietly.

Even for those of us working in climate-related fields, the danger can feel distant. We often focus on models showing the year 2100 and think: “We won’t be alive then,” as if the crisis only becomes real when the map turns blue. I’ve heard experts who are fully aware of the science speak as though natural processes have no impact on people until homes are visibly underwater. It is almost as if the social consequences and human stories behind slow environmental change are invisible; a disconnect that leaves reality feeling far less urgent than it truly is.

For me, it felt as if experts and the public are standing on opposite ends of the same room: each sees part of the reality, but neither sees the full picture. That gap is dangerous. What if we don’t share the same sense of urgency and understanding? How can we build resilience together?

Saltwater is already pushing into the Nile Delta, not as floods, but as slow salinization. Farmland is becoming less fertile. Freshwater is turning brackish. Fishermen can no longer rely on their catch. Communities are already feeling the economic strain now. These are not projections but present-day realities. It is already reshaping livelihoods and touching the very heart of a nation’s economy. The Nile Delta that feeds millions now struggles under the combined weight of rising seas, land loss, and economic pressures.

What worries me most is how hard it is to see the boundaries of this crisis. When the change is slow, problems become intertwined: sea level rise mixes with pollution, land subsidence, governance, social inequity, and much more. Everything overlaps. In Egypt, we are witnessing a crisis woven into other crises. A crisis in a region that sustains more than 100 million people. And one that remains too under-researched for its importance. It is overwhelming! But that is exactly why we must give it attention now.

Listening Beyond the Maps

The core of this assessment was never about mapping where the water might go; it was about understanding what that means for people. I needed to explore who is vulnerable, in what way, and where.

Because the Nile Delta is not just another case study to me, I wanted to pay close attention to what people had to say. I wanted to hear real stories of coping and adapting. But doing that in a hackathon setting was far from easy. A hackathon is fast-paced, competitive, and focused on quick outputs. What I needed were grounded, in-depth and close-to-people conversations.

Most participants were engineers from government authorities. For many, the idea that sea level rise could drive social disruption or influence migration felt unfamiliar, even unnecessary. I still remember one senior official telling me, almost jokingly, “Oh, you’re here to fill the silly gap that’s now trending in our sector.” He meant the social dimension of climate challenges.

So, the very people who needed to help me connect to local communities weren’t yet convinced there was anything to uncover. My first challenge wasn’t data; it was opening a conversation and finding a methodology that could bring them along on the journey.

Turning Skepticism into Dialogue

After a serious game and an introductory session, the hackathon participants finally began to listen. They were not fully convinced, but at least open to the idea that we could work together. Sharing the same culture helped. For Egyptians, humor and movie quotes can break any ice. By engaging with them directly and encouraging their participation, I gained their trust enough to gather their input through a questionnaire.

Yes, the hackathon was competitive and answering the questions earned them points. Yet, they didn’t just rush through. Instead, I had meaningful conversations with most of the 36 participants, each of whom answered for at least two communities. A total of 76 answers for my questionnaire. Guiding them through the questions in person allowed me to explain what every choice meant and why it mattered.

Some discussions became much deeper than a questionnaire. One participant, from a family of fishermen, shared how catch has declined, reducing income and forcing many fishermen to venture farther into deeper, riskier waters, sometimes even beyond Egyptian boundaries, risking arrest due to shifting regional fishing agreements. He explained how hiring fishermen works, how fish are sold, and how their challenges have grown more complex over time.

Together, we traced a line connecting environmental change, economic pressure, and community well-being. He helped me understand the lived reality behind the data, and I helped him see how sea level rise and climate change are not distant threats, but part of what he and his community face today.

It was eye-opening for both of us. A true exchange.

Where Research Meets Reality

The hackathon was an experiment, a rapid way to generate insights and connect different disciplines. But its most important lesson, for me, was that data gains meaning only when connected to lived experience.

As researchers, we often start with maps and models. Yet, the people most affected by climate change start with memories, places, and relationships. Bridging those two worlds is where meaningful climate action begins.

For me, writing this report was not just an academic exercise; it was a reminder that understanding climate change requires more than reading maps or running model simulations. Sometimes, we need to look beyond the data and listen to the people who are already navigating the changes we study. Their experiences reveal parts of the reality that models alone cannot capture. Only by bringing those perspectives together do we begin to see the whole picture.

To explore the full findings, you can access the report “Egypt Social Disruption and Migration due to Sea Level Rise – Results from Egypt SLR Hackathon” here.


OpenEdition suggests that you cite this post as follows:
Toka Mahmoud (November 18, 2025). Beyond the Models: What a Rapid Assessment Taught Me About Communities and Sea-Level Rise in Egypt. FLOWs. Retrieved May 11, 2026 from https://doi.org/10.58079/15609


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